• Global semiconductor revenues in 2024 are expected to surge 19% YoY, driven by booming AI demand.
• Global memory revenues are set to jump 64% YoY in 2024, with Samsung solidifying its position as the market leader.
• Global logic revenues were on track to rise 11% YoY in 2024. NVIDIA’s full-year semiconductor revenues rose 50% YoY.

The global semiconductor market’s revenues, encompassing the memory sector, are forecast to increase 19% YoY in full-year 2024 to reach $621 billion. This impressive growth highlights the industry's recovery following a weak 2023, driven primarily by the soaring demand for AI technologies, even amid a moderate recovery in the broader logic semiconductor market.

The ongoing strength of the memory market and GPUs continues to bolster global semiconductor revenue. In 2024, global memory revenues are expected to surge by 64% YoY, driven by a persistent production cut amid a recovery in demand. Additionally, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) has bolstered the sector. On the other hand, with GPUs playing a critical role in the training and development of AI models, global logic revenues are also expected to grow by 11% YoY in 2024. Despite the sluggish performance in the automotive and industrial sectors, there is a modest recovery that supports global semiconductor revenues.

In our model, we track semiconductor revenues exclusively from the chip with companies’ own brands, such as NVIDIA and Qualcomm, excluding foundry suppliers like TSMC and UMC. A separate analysis will cover the foundry landscape.

Company Analysis

In our latest analysis, Samsung has solidified its position as the dominant player in the global semiconductor market for 2023, continuing this trend into 2024. The company's market share rose significantly to 11.8% in 2024, up from 8.9% in 2023. This impressive growth is primarily attributed to strategic inventory pre-building and restocking efforts for smartphones. Samsung's ongoing commitment to attracting a diverse array of mobile and AI/HPC customers for advanced nodes positions the company for future success, even as it grapples with delays in HBM3e, and challenges related to low-end memory shipments and pricing.

Meanwhile, key competitors like SK Hynix and Micron are also set to benefit from the industry's positive momentum, particularly from the growing demand for HBM in AI applications. In 2024, SK Hynix maintained its second position in global semiconductor revenues, with market share rising to 7.7%, a significant increase from 4.8% in 2023. Micron is expected to see its market share increase to 4.8% in 2024, compared to 3.2% in 2023.

Qualcomm secured a strong third position in the global semiconductor market share, with 2024 Equipment and Service revenues growing 14% YoY and capturing a 5.6% share of the market. This growth is primarily driven by the recovery of non-Apple smartphones and its rapidly expanding automotive business, although the consumer segment, including IoT, continues to exhibit signs of slow recovery.

Broadcom is also positioned for success, expecting an 8% YoY revenue increase in its 2024 Semiconductor solutions revenues, bolstered by its growing AI revenue. We predict that Broadcom's AI revenue will more than triple by the end of 2024, fueled by advancements in acceleration, generative AI, and networking in Cloud and Edge segments, highlighting its strong market presence. Despite concerns regarding Broadcom’s custom ASICs in relation to NVIDIA GPUs, we believe this comparison is akin to apples and oranges, with both entities capable of thriving.

NVIDIA has experienced an impressive 50% YoY increase in its full-year semiconductor revenues (notably, this figure reflects only the hardware from each segment), elevating its market share from 3.4% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2024. This exceptional performance can be attributed to NVIDIA's dominance in AI applications across various sectors, particularly in data centers and gaming, despite encountering some supply chain challenges. The rollout of its Blackwell architecture will be a key focus in the coming quarters, although initial gross margin pressures are expected. As inference tasks grow in complexity, we expect that the market will increasingly lean toward high-performance solutions.

In contrast, Intel is facing ongoing challenges, with its 2024 revenues down 24% YoY, leading to a decrease in market share to just 4.9%, down from 7.7% the previous year. The persistent decline in demand within the PC and server markets, coupled with various operational hurdles, is likely to exacerbate Intel's weaknesses.

Source: Counterpoint Research

Conclusion

The semiconductor industry is experiencing remarkable growth, fueled by the surging demand for innovative products across sectors such as AI, robotics, and telecommunications. Prominent companies like NVIDIA, Samsung, and Qualcomm have solidified their status as market leaders, excelling in both market capitalization and revenue generation. Meanwhile, although Intel faces substantial challenges that threaten its competitive standing, the US remains at the forefront of the semiconductor race, particularly with its high-value semiconductor firms.