• NAM cellular IoT module shipments fell 16% YoY in Q3 2024, mainly due to softer demand and clearing out elevated inventory. from post-Covid in Healthcare, asset tracking and automotive applications.
• The NAM market rose 1% QoQ in Q3 2024, an indication that the market is stabilizing and returning to 2021 levels. We expect further growth in 2025.
• The top three applications in North America account for more than 50% of shipment share are automotive, router/CPE and healthcare.
• 4G Cat 4 and LTE-M are the two largest technologies in terms of shipments, together holding a 50% market share.
• Qualcomm remains the market leader with a dominant share, while Sony Altair ranks second helped by the strong performance of its LTE-M chipset offerings.

Buenos Aires, Seoul, Beijing, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, San Diego, Taipei, Tokyo – January 02, 2025

North America’s (NAM) cellular IoT module shipments tumbled 16% YoY in Q3 2024, the region’s seventh straight quarter of declines, according to Counterpoint’s latest ‘North America Cellular IoT Module and Chipset Tracker by Application’ report. The drop was due to weak demand following the post-pandemic upshot primarily driven by inventory adjustments in key applications like healthcare, asset tracking, and automotive.

However, the competitive landscape for module vendors remains intense and highly concentrated, with about 49% of the market controlled by the top three vendors. In the region, the top three applications are automotive, router/CPE, and healthcare, together accounting for over 50% of the shipment share. All three experienced YoY declines this quarter following the market trend.

From a technology perspective, 4G Cat 4 and LTE-M are the largest by shipment market share, collectively accounting for a 50% share. Meanwhile, 4G Cat 1 bis and 5G are the fastest-growing technologies. Off a low base, 4G Cate 1 bis grew 21% YoY while 5G rose 8% YoY, respectively. 4G Cat 1 bis is mostly adopted in applications like smart meters and POS devices. 5G growth remains slower than expected, constrained by market softness and the high price of 5G modules, which still exceed $120. NB-IoT is facing challenges in the US market, with AT&T phasing out its NB-IoT network. The carrier is discontinuing data plans and device certifications, with a full shutdown scheduled for Q1 2025. NB-IoT has not proven feasible in terms of ARPU versus effort for US carriers. Verizon and T-Mobile are also expected to discontinue NB-IoT in the near future. The market is shifting towards higher-speed IoT technologies, a trend underscored by the limited adoption of NB-IoT in the US. As of Q4 2023, NB-IoT represented just 2% of AT&T’s 127 million cellular IoT connections, with the majority relying on 4G and LTE-M.

• Quectel is the market leader in the NAM region, with a steady 27% share. Past design wins, particularly in automotive applications, continue to help the global leader maintain market share with some geopolitical headwinds in one of the most important cellular IoT markets after China. Quectel is attempting to defend its customer base by leveraging strategies such as launching the Net Prisma brand and the ‘Made in US’ campaign with Eagle Electronics in addition to more aggressive pricing.
• Telit Cinterion ranks second in the region and is the number one non-Chinese supplier. A robust portfolio of IoT module solutions and growing global scale helped by geopolitical tailwinds has bolstered Telit’s position, with a more positive outlook and increasing design wins from customers looking to move away from Chinese vendors.
• Following the Sierra Wireless acquisition, Semtech has experienced a slight decline in market share. Sierra’s focus needs to expand beyond cellular routers, gateways and modems into other verticals as well as core silicon business to grow in this space. Like Telit-Centerion, some geopolitical tailwinds should help the company with some design wins in 2025.
• In terms of cellular chipset powering these modules, Qualcomm remains the market leader with more than 75% share, while Sony Altair holds the second position due to the good traction of its LPWA chipset offerings and design wins with multiple module vendors. Most NAM device OEMs prefer using Western module manufacturers for smart meters and routers/CPEs.

Although NAM’s IoT module shipments dropped to 2021 levels, we expect the market to resume growing again in 2025. Regulatory and legislative actions are likely to further encourage market participants to prioritize more on local or western module makers. Investments in affordability and innovation will be critical to reversing the downward trend and re-establishing NAM as a competitive global market. In the long term, 5G RedCap and 5G present a promising growth opportunity, particularly in 5G FWA CPEs, mobility, smart energy, surveillance and POS applications. However, the prices of 5G & 5G RedCap modules need to drop to under $100 and $45, respectively, for widespread adoption.

For detailed research, refer to the following reports available for subscribers:

• Global Cellular IoT Module and Chipset Tracker, Q3 2024
• Global Cellular IoT Module and Chipset Tracker by Application, Q3 2024

Counterpoint’s ‘Global Cellular IoT Module and Chipset Tracker by Application, Q2 2024’ tracks 1,500+ IoT module SKUs on a quarterly basis and provides forecasts on shipments, revenues and ASP performances for 80+ IoT module vendors, 12+ chipset players and 18+ IoT applications across 10 major geographies.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the technology, media and telecom (TMT) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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