• Consumer sentiment continues to improve more robustly than expected in Latin America, Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe due to improving macroeconomic conditions.
• The introduction of GenAI-based devices will catalyze some additional growth beyond 2024.
• Apple Intelligence with GenAI-capable iPhone launches is expected to extend the growth momentum through 2025, creating an opportunity to take Apple to the top in annual shipments.
• Steady upgrades to smartphones and from LTE to 5G in emerging economies will keep driving steady growth in the long term.

Seoul, Beijing, Buenos Aires, Fort Collins, Hong Kong, London, New Delhi, Taipei, Tokyo – August 29, 2024

After two consecutive years of declines, global smartphone shipments will grow 5% YoY in 2024 to reach 1.23 billion units, according to the latest forecast from Counterpoint’s Market Outlook Service. This is an upward revision from the previous forecast of under 4% YoY growth, as macroeconomic conditions and consumer sentiment continue to improve. The positive momentum will continue in the coming years despite ongoing geopolitical turbulence in Europe and the Middle East.

Associate Director Liz Lee said, “In the longer term, we expect more new smartphone users to enter the market, leading to a steady accretion in the overall installed base. While this will be driven by emerging markets like the Middle East and Africa (MEA), Caribbean and Latin America (CALA), India and Southeast Asia, growth can also be expected in North America and even Europe, which is largely a replacement market now. Key mature markets such as China, Japan and South Korea will also play a role in long-term revenue growth with an increasing mix of high-value smartphones.”

The introduction of GenAI-based devices will catalyze some additional growth beyond 2024. As consumer awareness of GenAI devices grows, OEMs will increasingly incorporate GenAI features. Senior Analyst Harmeet Singh Walia said, “The share of GenAI-capable smartphones is expected to go from less than a fifth in 2024 to more than half in 2028. Apple’s AI (Apple Intelligence), available in its upcoming models, will boost GenAI devices in the whole smartphone market. It could create an opportunity for Apple to rise to the top in annual shipments as soon as in 2025.”

Meanwhile, Chinese OEMs such as Huawei, HONOR and Motorola will drive growth in the foldable smartphone market. Apple’s entry into foldables, expected in 2027, will bring momentum to the new form factor, strengthening the ecosystem further.

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media, and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects, and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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