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Report

Smartphone Market Altered by Memory Supply Shortage: Low-end Phones Are Losing Ground

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June 1, 2026
  • As the memory supply shortage intensifies in 2026, the sales share of low-end smartphones ($99 and under) is declining significantly, and the rate of decline is far exceeding the rate of contraction of the overall market.
  • This is a result of memory manufacturers focusing on producing high-value-added products due to the surge in demand for HBM for AI servers, causing the supply of general-purpose memory for low-end phones to be relegated to a relatively lower priority.
  • The impact varies by brand. Emerging market brands heavily reliant on low-end lineups (such as Transsion and Xiaomi) are expected to take the biggest hit, whereas Samsung and Apple, with their premium portfolios, will experience relatively limited impact and are expected to benefit from some indirect effects.
  • The memory shortage is expected to gradually ease starting from the end of 2027. However, prior to the recovery, the mid-to-low price range ($100-$249) may gradually fall. Consequently, the sales share of the high-end and premium segments is expected to expand.


An analysis of global smartphone sales for the 15 months from January 2025 to March 2026 reveals that while the market generally maintains seasonalities, distinct structural changes have been emerging since early 2026. Although the average monthly sales remains at around 100 million units, a sharp contraction in the low-end segment is observed in terms of sales share by price range.

Notably, the imbalance in sales share by price range has intensified since 2026. Signs of this began to appear in Q4 2025, when the memory shortage began in earnest, and by early 2026, the sales share of low-end smartphones ($99 and under) fell to 12%-13%, recording the analysis period’s lowest level.

Global Smartphone Sales Share by Price Range, January 2025-March 2026

Global Smartphone Sales Share by Price Range, January 2025-March 2026
Source: Counterpoint Global Monthly Smartphone Model Tracker
Note: Prices are based on wholesale prices.

 

Analysis by Price Range: Low Price ($99 and under) – Decline in both sales volume and share

Low-end smartphones priced at $99 and under maintained a monthly sales level of 18 million-19 million units during Q1 2025, accounting for 18%-19% of total sales. However, a downward trend began in September 2025, falling to 15% in Q4 2025, and plummeted to 13% in January and February 2026, and further to 12% in March.

Sales Units and Share of Low-end Smartphones Under $99

Sales Units and Share of Low-end Smartphones Under $99
Source: Counterpoint Global Monthly Smartphone Model Tracker

The decline is also evident in terms of unit sales volume. After peaking in March 2025, sales continued to decrease, falling to less than 12 million units by March 2026. This represents a decline of 40% YoY, significantly exceeding the overall market decline rate during the same period. This demonstrates that low-end smartphones are much more vulnerable to market shocks than other price points.


Mid-to-Low Price Range ($100-$249) – Solid as the core segment of the market

The $100-$249 price range has maintained the highest sales share. It remained stable at the 35%-39% level in 2025 and is showing a slight increase in share in early 2026, recording levels of 38%-40%. This can be interpreted as a result of some consumers who dropped out of the low-end segment being absorbed into this range.

Sales volume peaked in October 2025, marking the highest point of the analysis period, and has maintained a level of 36 million-37 million units from January to March 2026. While this segment was relatively less affected by memory supply shortages through the first quarter of 2026, it may be difficult to remain unaffected as the situation becomes more severe starting from the second quarter.

Mid-to-High Price Range ($250-$699) – Stable maintenance

The $250-$699 range was the most stable, maintaining a share of 20%-26%. After a slight peak in June 2025, it has remained stable without significantly declining through January-March 2026. This is because proportion of smartphone models in this price range that adopt LPDDR5 or higher DRAM, for which supply has been relatively good, are significantly higher than those in the mid-to-low price range.

DRAM Adoption Share by Smartphone Price Range
(Based on Cumulative Sales from January 2025 to March 2026)

DRAM Adoption Share by Smartphone Price Range
Source: Counterpoint Global Monthly Smartphone Model Tracker

 High and Premium (>$700) – Distinct seasonality amid increasing share

The premium segment, priced at over $700, is where seasonality is most pronounced. While the sales share dropped below 20% in August 2025, just before the launch of Apple’s new iPhone models, it peaked at 29% from September 2025 through the end of the year, when the new models were released. Demand for premium models is heavily influenced by the new product launch cycle, showing significant quarterly variations depending on the timing of new model releases by Apple and Samsung.

Another trend of this segment is the expansion of the sales share. In March 2026, it accounted for 26.9% of sales, a 4.5% point increase compared to the same month of the previous year. Due to the advancement of smartphone specifications and rising component prices, this price range is expected to continue to grow in the future.

Conclusion and Outlook

The shortage of memory supply is simultaneously pressuring both the sales volume and proportion of low-end smartphones in the global market, a trend that has accelerated since 2026. The sales share of low-end smartphones prices at $99 or less fell from 18%-19% in early 2025 to 12% by March 2026, while the sales units also decreased by about 40% during the same period.

In contrast, the premium segment priced at $700 or more shows a pattern of maintaining its overall share or slightly expanding. This suggests that the structural problem of memory supply priority being skewed toward high-value-added products is intensifying market polarization.

The memory supply shortage is expected to gradually ease starting from the end of 2027. With demand of HBM for AI servers remaining strong, the shift in supply to general-purpose memory for smartphones will inevitably remain limited for the time being. Meanwhile, supply constraints in the low-end segment are highly likely to persist through the second half of 2026 and into 2027.

More importantly, the impact of memory shortage may not be limited to the low-end segment. If supply conditions do not improve over time, the mid-to-low price range ($100-$249) is also likely to gradually fall under the influence of memory shortages. If the supply of memory specifications for mid-to-low price models tightens relative to demand, the sales share of this segment could also be pressured.

Consequently, as the memory shortage persists, the beneficiaries are expected to narrow to the high-end and premium segment, which possess competitiveness in prioritizing memory acquisition. The market share of premium brands such as Samsung and Apple is highly likely to expand structurally, which is expected to further accelerate the trend of sophistication and polarization in the smartphone market.

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Smartphone

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Premium

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Author

Sujeong Lim

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Sujeong Lim is a Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research based out of Seoul Korea. In Counterpoint, she focuses on mobile ICT industry and mobile device research, especially dedicated on the Korea mobile market. After 10+ years product marketing experience during her working period, she joined Counterpoint to pursue her interest in IoT and emerging future technology.