Memory Crisis to Accelerate 5G Adoption in Mainstream Smartphone SoCs in 2026

• The ongoing memory crisis will accelerate the adoption of 5G SoCs in mainstream smartphones (<$300), with penetration expected to exceed 50% in 2026.
• The acceleration will be driven by a reduction in prices of 5G smartphone SoCs and 4G SoCs configured around a legacy memory interface.
• Smartphone SoC players with a larger share of the mainstream segment will likely be negatively impacted.
• Smartphone OEMs are adopting older-generation SoCs and downgrading specs to maintain their margins.
• The ongoing memory crisis will delay the node migration of mainstream SoCs to 5/4nm and the availability of on-device GenAI.

The ongoing global memory crisis will create a structural shift in the mainstream smartphone SoC segment (<$300). We expect 5G penetration to exceed 50% for the first time in this segment in 2026, driven by reduced prices for entry-level 5G SoCs, the availability of 5G SoCs with LPDDR5, and telcos increasing their 5G coverage across regions. The migration will likely be led by MediaTek’s Dimensity 6000 series, Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 400 and 600 series, and UNISOC’s T8300, as the ASP of these SoCs are comparable to their nearest 4G SoCs.