Although LCD makers are pushing for price increases on LCD panels in Q4 2026, they have not yet been successful. We are seeing a tug-of-war between LCD makers and TV OEMs that will set the market direction in 2027.
LCD TV panel prices held steady MoM in October after three consecutive months of falling prices in Q3 2026. The downturn in Q3 2026 followed a first half where prices increased in Q1 and stabilized in Q2. Prices were buoyed by rising TV demand in the first half leading up to the World Cup, but TV shipments started to fall off in May and TV demand softened in Q3 2026.
According to Counterpoint Research’s Monthly Global TV Shipments Tracker, total TV shipments increased 1% YoY in September, bringing the total for Q3 2026 also to a 1% YoY increase. That, in turn, brings the year-to-date TV shipments to a 1% YoY increase. With continuing geopolitical uncertainty, high energy prices and low consumer confidence across many regions, no one expects a demand surge in Q4 2026.
While the supply-demand balance of LCD is mostly determined by the TV market, with more than 70% of LCD area going to TVs, the IT market is also important, with more than 20% of area demand going to tablets, notebooks and monitors. Although the TV market has been unimpressive in 2026 with only a 1% YoY increase, the IT market is much worse. Counterpoint’s PC service indicates that PC shipments declined 21% YoY in Q3 2026. Also, we have seen an increase in OLED penetration across all three applications, meaning the demand for LCD IT panels is further reduced.
Thus, panel makers face a difficult environment for raising prices. With TV demand tepid at best, and IT demand falling sharply, and as TV OEMs face rising prices for memory, TV OEMs are resisting the higher prices and indicating that volumes will be reduced. In order to sustain volumes, LCD makers have offered Market Development Funds (MDF) to the major OEMs to help stimulate demand, but these MDFs effectively cancel the price increase.
The first chart here highlights our latest TV panel price update with a forecast through January 2027. Since the beginning of 2024, we have been through two cycles of rally and slump, and the third cycle is happening in 2026.
Prices in October came in right where we expected them to. We expected prices across all sizes to be flat MoM, and that’s what happened. A month ago, we expected prices to start to increase in November, but now we expect November to be another month of flat MoM prices.
LCD TV Panel Prices, July 2024 – January 2027
Source: Counterpoint Research
