- The ABF substrate industry is entering a structurally longer up-cycle driven by enterprise AI demand, differing from the 2020-2022 consumer-led “work from home” cycle.
- Next-generation technologies like Embedded Passives and Intel’s EMIB-T introduce complexity. Even with a single defective passive component, the entire package must be scrapped, further straining capacity.
- Substrate vendors are expected to implement 3%-5% QoQ price hikes in H1 2026 to pass through surging costs. Meanwhile, greenfield capacity will not arrive until 2027, leading to a 20% gap in shortage.
- AI players should treat substrate availability as a strategic binding constraint. Securing multi-year capacity agreements and subsidies will ensure raw material priority (T-glass) and stability.
Today’s AI “brains” have become massive and far more complicated, requiring super-bridges that are much larger and have many more layers than those used for ordinary PCs (one AI chip consumes roughly 10 times more substrate material than a standard PC chip). This sudden explosion in demand has brought a major roadblock – the world is running out of T-glass, a specialized high-strength glass fiber needed to make substrates. Furthermore, because these AI-grade bridges are relatively difficult to construct, many end up being defective during manufacturing (lower yields), meaning the actual supply is likely even smaller than it appears.
Substrate remains indispensable amid surging AI demand
The substrate industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation as demand pivots from consumer-led PC markets to enterprise-driven AI infrastructure, which offers significantly higher visibility. By 2030, AI related applications, including servers, GPUs, ASICs and networking, are expected to capture over 50% of the total substrate market value, while the PC segment's share is expected to fall from above 50% in the 2010s to below 20%. This transition is straining global capacity because a single advanced AI chip consumes roughly 10 times more ABF (Ajinomoto Build‑up Film) material than a traditional PC chip. Furthermore, substrate specifications are rapidly migrating toward dimensions exceeding 100x100 mm and layer counts of 20+ to 40+, exponentially increasing manufacturing complexity.
The role of Substrates and PCBs in Advanced Packaging
