The ‘Big 3’ US carriers have been elevating their promotional offers. The US mobile postpaid environment has been quite competitive over the last few quarters in an elevated churn environment. Many subscribers are cycling off 36-month plans and are in the market for new devices, contributing to rising upgrade rates. Additionally, the end of these 36-month plans allows subscribers the freedom to switch carriers without having to pay off a remaining balance. Meanwhile, there has been a bit of a pull back in the prepaid space in terms of promotional activity.

To quantify the strength of promotions from the consumer standpoint, Counterpoint has integrated a promotional index into its US Weekly Smartphone Promotions Tracker. This index is scored on a scale of 0-100 (with 100 being the best achievable score) and considers several factors that comprise a promotion in the US. The higher the score, the more competitive the promotion from a consumer’s point of view. The index aims to quantify elements of friction involved in taking advantage of a promotion and the monetary perceived value provided to the consumer. The higher the score, the more competitive the promotion from a consumer’s point of view. We use this to evaluate both the postpaid and prepaid space, OEMs and individual devices.

Postpaid high-level trends

As shown below, the US postpaid market promotional landscape lagged behind last year but is tracking to improve YoY.

Average of All Promotion Index Scores in Postpaid Week 1 - Week 9, 2025 vs 2026

As the US smartphone market is mature and saturated, it is important to take into account the timing of the Galaxy S26 series launch vs the Galaxy S25 series launch. The Galaxy S Series launch is one of the major postpaid launches of the year that tip the scales of the promotional landscape. With a later launch, the Big 3 usually remove promotions on the prior S Series generation. The promotions in weeks ahead of the S26 series launch were trending higher than the prior year due to elevated devices subsidies YoY and lower promotional requirements. This suggests that promotional strength will trend higher in H1 2026 YoY overall and tracks with comments made by carrier leadership, like AT&T’s John Stankey during the Q4 2025 earnings call.

Prepaid high-level trends

Prepaid is a different story with promotions down YoY on average. This is due to a reallocation of marketing spend. Prepaid channels are refocusing their efforts around a handful of champion devices unless the OEM supports its broader portfolio sufficiently. Motorola is an example of an OEM that is doing as much as possible to keep even two-year-old devices heavily discounted. Meanwhile, brands like Orbic simply cannot keep up and are consequently losing marketing support.

Average of All Promotion Index Scores in Prepaid Week 1 - Week 9, 2025 vs 2026

Returning to postpaid, Apple and Samsung announced the first two major smartphone launches of 2026, and a few noteworthy angles have been identified from both Samsung and Apple. Additionally, major carriers have set the tone for postpaid promotions in 2026.

Galaxy S26 series price increase forces stronger promotions in postpaid

The Galaxy S26 series launched with some upward adjustments to pricing. Samsung raised the price of the S26 256GB variant by 5% YoY (to $899 this year from $859 a year ago) while at the same time eliminating the 128GB option. Additionally, the base model for the S26 Plus 256GB entry storage variant saw a 10% increase YoY (it is now $1,099 for the S26 Plus 256GB vs $999 for the S25 Plus 256GB last year). The entry level S26 Ultra pricing remained unchanged vs the S25 Ultra.

US carriers have responded to the memory crunch-induced price hikes with stronger promotions as part of their goal to grow their respective postpaid subscriber base. As shown in the figure below, all three models and carriers saw substantial increases in the highest tier promotions.

The increase in scores is mainly driven by higher device subsidies offered by the carriers as a result of higher pricing to keep the devices free. The Galaxy S26 Ultra at T-Mobile saw a significant improvement in index scores, rising to 100 in 2026 from 68 last year, at the launch of the Galaxy S25 Ultra, thanks to a higher total dollar discount ($1,300 now vs $1,000 last year). Trade-in was not required for the strongest promotion, offering the device for free on its most premium tier plan.

Verizon also saw increased scores YoY. Verizon increased its subsidies on the base and Plus models in 2026 to account for price increases. It also lowered plan thresholds to take advantage of promotions and lifted some trade-in requirements on the promotions for the base and plus models. With these actions, carriers aim to take the sting out of hardware price increases and encourage upgrades.

Verizon S25 Launch Promotions

Verizon S26 Launch Promotions

AT&T also increased its subsidies across the lineup, and the rest of the plan/trade requirements remained consistent YoY. This increase was more modest as it already offered the strongest promotion on the S25 Ultra the prior year. Despite memory price increases leading Samsung to increase pricing, postpaid promotions will help to alleviate some of those changes. For the US, at least, price increases are being absorbed in postpaid for the time being.

iPhone 17e promotions improved YoY at Verizon and T-Mobile

While other OEMs are having to raise prices, Apple launched its latest model, featuring improved memory configuration, at flat prices YoY. The 512GB version of iPhone 17e got a $100 price cut.

Given the aggressive pricing from Apple, there has not been as much change in the carrier promotional strength as compared to the Galaxy S26 series. AT&T’s index score for the iPhone 17e launch week actually declined YoY. The promotion at AT&T was identical, but that $599 device subsidy was simply not as competitive against the backdrop of new historically high subsidies in postpaid. Meanwhile, Verizon and T-Mobile’s scores increased YoY. Verizon, like with the S26 series, showed the strongest gain YoY in the top-tier promotions for the iPhone 17e as shown in the figure below. AT&T is improving its promotions for flagship devices while leaving mid-range device promotions stagnant vs last year.

Strength of Promotion Index for Launch of iPhone 16e vs iPhone 17e

Given the evidence provided by the first two major postpaid launches of the year in addition to persistently high churn and a large base exiting 36-month payment plans, Counterpoint expects the US postpaid promotional index to climb higher than H1 2025 levels. However, we expect market volume to soften due to macroeconomic headwinds, memory supply dynamics and subsequent rising costs. All this may outweigh aggressive carrier promotions.