- The fight for users remains fierce. Eight smartphone OEMs each exceeded 200 million installed base in 2025, together accounting 80%+ of the active base. However, it is no longer where the contest is decided. The harder problem is monetization.
- Holding a user and earning from one are different problems. Only Apple has successfully converted its existing user base into service revenue, while most Android OEMs have failed to generate significant revenue after device sales, despite their large user bases.
- As the axis of competition shifts from hardware to the AI experience layer, Apple has gained an advantage through vertical integration, while Android OEMs face the challenge of differentiating themselves through orchestration and app integration, even while using the same Gemini.
- With shrinking hardware margins, the importance of recurring service revenue is growing. Brands that secure the context layer will lead the next cycle. While brands what are slow to respond risk becoming dependent solely on hardware sales.
Engagement is won, monetization is wide open
Eight smartphone OEMs each surpassed 200 million active devices in 2025, according to the Counterpoint Research Smartphone Installed Base Tracker. Together, they accounted for more than 80% of the global active base, with Apple holding roughly one in four active smartphones and Samsung nearly one in five.