Overview: The global smartphone market grew 3.2% YoY in 2025, supported by premiumization, Emerging Market momentum, and the post-COVID replacement cycle. Q4 2025 was particularly strong, partly driven by pull-forward demand ahead of anticipated 2026 component cost increases. We now project the market to decline 12.4% YoY in 2026 to approximately 1,098 million units, a dramatic downward revision from the 2.1% decline projected in December, and the steepest single-year drop in the smartphone market’s history.

Table of Contents:

  • Assumptions
  • Pivot
  • Flatfile


Published Date: March 2026