Overview

The global smartphone market is projected to decline 14.3% in 2026, the steepest annual contraction on record. Shipments in H1 of the year were higher than end demand due to inventory accumulation by OEMs concerned about further increases in memory prices, and as a result, a sharp decline in shipments is expected in H2.
This memory supply shortage is placing significant pressure on the price range below $200, with meaningful pressure extending into the $200-$600 segment. Rising prices for new devices could increase demand for repairs, used, and refurbished products; if this trend persists, the low-cost smartphone market is likely to become unsustainable. Meanwhile, devices above $600 remain more resilient because of financing, trade-ins, ecosystem attachment and stronger supplier access.

Foldables expand gradually beyond ultra-premium niches as more book-style and clamshell models reach lower price points, with Apple entry supporting category awareness and ecosystem competition; however, high prices, durability concerns and limited use case differentiation constrain mass adoption.

What the Full Report Will Cover

This report provides quarterly shipment forecasts for Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, Huawei, Google, Motorola, Honor, OnePlus, and Sony through the end of 2027. It includes unit shipments and forecasts by individual model or series that brand-level forecast cannot provide.

Who Should Read This

This report can support the decision-making of smartphone OEM strategy and product planning teams, smartphone component suppliers, carriers and distribution channel partners, and investors who need to closely track product trends and competitive dynamics in the smartphone market.

Key Questions the Report Answers

• What are the expected shipment volumes for the iPhone 18 series and the first foldable iPhone, scheduled for release in the third quarter of 2026?
• How is the quarterly shipment gap in the premium segment between the Galaxy S26 Ultra and iPhone 18 Pro Max changing, and which model will capture the actual volume following Apple's entry into the foldable market?
• What are the shipment volumes of models equipped with Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6, and what is the quarterly impact this has on LPDDR6 demand?
• How will the shipment share of the low-end segment change in 2026–2027?
• What are the expected launch quarters and shipment ramp-up speeds for the iPhone 19 and Galaxy S27?