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Rising chip costs to push global smartphone shipments down in 2026, Counterpoint says

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December 15, 2025

Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline 2.1% next year as rising chip costs are likely to impact demand, technology-focused market research firm Counterpoint said on Tuesday.

Electronics supply chains around the world have been hit by a shortage of legacy memory chips in recent months as manufacturers turned their focus to high-end memory chips suited for semiconductors designed for AI applications.

What we are seeing now is the low end of the market (below $200) being impacted most severely, with bill-of-materials costs (total cost of parts) increasing by 20% to 30% since the beginning of the year, Counterpoint's Research Director MS Hwang said.

Chinese Smartphone brands such as Honor Device and Oppo are expected to be more vulnerable, particularly in the entry-level segment, due to tight margins, the report said.

"Apple and Samsung are best-positioned to weather the next few quarters," Counterpoint senior analyst Yang Wang said.

The research firm said last month that Nvidia's move to use smartphone-style memory chips in its artificial intelligence servers could cause server-memory prices to double by late 2026.

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Team Counterpoint

Counterpoint research is a young and fast growing research firm covering analysis of the tech industry. Coverage areas are connected devices, digital consumer goods, software & applications and other adjacent topics. We provide syndicated research report as well as tailored. Our seminars and workshops for companies and institutions are popular and available on demand. Consulting and customer