The two companies continue to benefit from increased premiumization across the globe. According to Counterpoint Research’s Market Monitor Service, the global smartphone ASP crossed $400 for the first time in Q4 2025, with the Snapdragon 8 Elite and Dimensity 9500/8500 proving to be success stories for Qualcomm and MediaTek.

Global Smartphone Market ASPs, Q4 2024-Q4 2025

Source: Counterpoint Research

However, in the US, MediaTek is struggling to keep up with Qualcomm, Samsung and Tensor, which are all gaining share in the market. MediaTek is losing ground in the low end with Samsung opting to supply its own Exynos SoCs to the high-volume Galaxy A16 and Galaxy A17. This design is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Besides, as MediaTek is looking to move into more premium segments, it is facing pressure from Samsung there as well, which has opted to use its Exynos 2500 3nm processor for its flagship Galaxy Z Flip7. Qualcomm also took some hits from Samsung’s design changes.

Samsung grew its SoC sales volume by a massive 200% YoY in 2025. Google also gained some traction in the US this year with its Pixel 10 series lineup, further eroding potential Android volumes for MediaTek. Besides, each year, there is a battle between Qualcomm and MediaTek to secure design wins with Motorola. These wins are crucial to bolster overall AP-SoC volumes. MediaTek’s design wins for 2025 acted as a lifeline to keep volumes afloat despite the Exynos changes.

However, 2026 is bringing new challenges. In addition to Apple and Google’s growth in the US and Samsung increasingly turning in-house for its AP-SoC supply, Qualcomm and MediaTek’s handset divisions are now having to contend with memory constraints, placing further pressure on their OEM partners and forcing pricing and design concessions. While both were excited to announce revenue growth in their handset divisions, a sense of unease looms as DRAM threatens the future growth of these core pillars of their business. Qualcomm is somewhat insulated in the US market due to the foothold it has maintained in the premium segment.

The nature of the US postpaid market, where carriers subsidize device costs with monthly instalments that remain interest-free, keeps premium smartphones attainable for consumers. Price hikes can get rolled into manageable interest-free monthly payments. However, for MediaTek, it is a different story. MediaTek has thrived in the price bands below $599. According to Counterpoint’s US Monthly Smartphone Channel Share Tracker, 69% of smartphones sold in the US with MediaTek chipsets were under $600 in Q4 2025. Given the inevitable increases in memory prices for handset OEMs, sales in those lower price bands will be impacted the most in this current memory shakeup.

MediaTek-Powered US Smartphone Sales by Price, Q4 2025

The US is moving further into a K-shaped economy where the spending of top earners is unaffected by market conditions, but the low end is hurting. Price increases will likely force longer holding periods and suppress smartphone sales in the low end until market conditions improve. This bodes poorly for MediaTek if it wants to regain the market share it has lost over the last two years to iOS, Samsung, Google and Qualcomm.