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Chip Crunch to Curb Smartphone Output in 2026, Researcher Says

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December 15, 2025

Global smartphone shipments may decline 2.1% next year as a shortage of memory chips drives up costs and squeezes production, according to industry tracker Counterpoint Research.

That marks a dramatic reversal from an estimated gain of 3.3% this year, with the influential research firm slashing its projection for 2026 from a previous estimate of marginal 0.45% growth. The average selling price for handsets is set to rise 6.9% globally next year, reflecting a 10% to 25% jump in the overall cost of components, Counterpoint said in a research report Tuesday.

The global AI buildout has spurred semiconductor producers this year to prioritize advanced memory for Nvidia Corp. accelerators over more basic products. That in turn has fomented a shortage of the dynamic random access memory that’s indispensable in electronics from laptops and EVs to medical devices and appliances.

Memory Supply Crunch Is Pushing Smartphone Market Into Slump

Forecasts for growth have been wiped out by surging cost of key components

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Team Counterpoint

Counterpoint research is a young and fast growing research firm covering analysis of the tech industry. Coverage areas are connected devices, digital consumer goods, software & applications and other adjacent topics. We provide syndicated research report as well as tailored. Our seminars and workshops for companies and institutions are popular and available on demand. Consulting and customer